Coastal Seminar 2015 – Dr Jonathan Simm (HR Wallingford)

This presentation will explain the systems analysis methodology adopted in the UK to provide a comprehensive picture of current flood risk taking account of the presence of defences. The approach is based on models and data that have been largely funded by the Environment Agency of England. The risk analysis method comprises extreme value distributions to describe the hydraulic loading on the flood defence infrastructure, fragility curves to describe the likelihood of structural failure of the defences, a computationally efficient flood inundation model and functions that relate depth of flooding to economic damages. Recent innovations in the methodology have significantly enhanced the approach to coastal flood risk analysis. The approach

  • Helps to justify investment on defences/risk management by calculating Expected Annual Damages and supports decisions on allocation of expenditure in a cost-constrained situation
  • Enables assessment of flood risk for future scenarios to support forward planning
  • Communicates the value of levee investments to stakeholders